Most air travel forecasts predict a long-term rise in demand, with limited consideration of any limits to growth. However for any given population there will be those who have not flown recently, as well as those who never have flown. For the UK, about half the population respond to travel surveys that they did not fly in the previous 12 months. We call these the ‘infrequent flyers’.

Little is known about this group, including  whether they are likely to fly in the future. Anne Graham, of the University of Westminster, and I recently published findings of an analysis of the characteristics of this group and the reasons for their travel habits, using a survey commissioned by the UK Civil Aviation Authority. We found that infrequent flyers make up a heterogeneous consumer group whose non-flying is influenced more by budget constraints and personal circumstances than specific aviation factors such as fear of flying.

The proportion of infrequent flyers in the UK population has remained stable over time. Our findings do not suggest that this is likely to change in the future, so the infrequent flyers are unlikely to be a source of future demand for air travel on account of their increased propensity to fly.

Our paper: Graham&Metz JATM Infreq flyers published

The current main method of adding capacity to UK motorways is known as Smart Motorway All Lane Running. This involves allowing traffic to use the hard shoulder (previously reserved for breakdowns), with speed controls to respond to accidents and congested conditions. This approach has been applied to a section of the M25, London’s orbital motorway, increasing running lanes from 3 to 4. A monitoring report after two years of operation has been published. The main findings, compared with before the scheme was introduced: traffic flows up by as much as 17%, well above the regional trend (5%); some journey times increased by up to 8%; and only a slight improvement in reliability. Significantly, the biggest increases in traffic occurred at weekends (as much as 26%).

Assessment

The intention of investment to increase the capacity of the Strategic Road Network, of which the M25 forms an important part, is to improve connectivity between cities and reduce congestion. However, roads like the M25, that are located in densely populated areas, are also used by local users for their daily travel. Any increase in capacity offers opportunities for more or longer local trips.The resulting extra traffic restore congestion to that it had been prior the the investment in capacity. The findings of the present study are consistent with this general experience. Regrettably, there is no data on the composition of the traffic, by journey purpose or distance travelled. However, the finding of a big increase in weekend traffic is consistent with leisure users taking advantage of initially faster travel to reach more distant destinations.

The findings of this report confirm the phenomenon of ‘induced traffic’ – the traffic that results from additional road capacity – as I discussed recently in connection with the CPRE study. Such traffic adds to congestion and so reduces the time savings expected from such investment, time savings that constitute the main economic benefits presumed to justify the investment.

 

My new book, Travel Fast or Smart?, is one in a series of short books on policy and economics topics described as ‘essays on big ideas by leading writers’. My contribution is a critique of the inconsistencies of transport policy in recent decades, which I attribute to the shortcomings of conventional transport economic appraisal in identifying the benefits that arise from investment.  This book is available both in print and as an ebook from Amazon Books


There is much current interest worldwide in the concept of Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), the aim of which is to provide seamless journeys using the most appropriate travel modes, routed and ticketed by means of a smart phone app. The MaaS provider ‘aggregates’ the services provided by transport operators (in the way that Amazon acts for retail product providers). MaaS is intended to be an attractive alternative to private car ownership. The Transport Catapult has recently published a report on the opportunities for MaaS in the UK. And the New Cities Foundation has addressed the role of public transport operators in its development.

There are many recognised technical and policy issues that need to be tackled, including managing the large amounts of data, and coordinating ticketing and payments on behalf of a multiplicity of operarors. However, there are two aspects that deserve particular consideration. The first is the ability of MaaS to cope with peak travel demand.

Peak demand

Daily travel demand is characterised by morning and evening peaks, and there are also seasonal variations. Peaks result in road congestion and crowding on railways. One approach would be to charge higher prices at times of greatest demand, with the aim of spreading the peak. This model has been adopted in the aviation sector, led by the low-cost carriers, and by Uber for urban taxis (and also in other sectors such as hotels). The railways offer off-peak discounted fares, but do not flex fares upwards to reflect actual peak demand.

However, unless peak pricing is part of the public transport provision (which at present it is not), the scope for coping with peak demand for multi-modal journeys is quite limited. This means that unreliability of travel time for each stage of a journey would present a scheduling problem.

While MaaS comprises a minority of all trips, congestion would be a given, and scheduling would need to allow for expected journey stage times plus a margin for uncertainty, with rerouting in the event of unexpected congestion. On railways, consideration would need to be given to offering alternatives to overcrowded trains. Such dynamic scheduling could be technologically challenging.

Were MaaS to grow to encompass a substantial part of travel demand, there may be scope for routing travellers to spread demand across the network in a way that optimises overall efficiency, simplest for routes that involve stages with assured reliability – rail, bus rapid transit, walking and cycling. There would also be scope to consolidate car trips by means of shared taxis, as with UberPOOL. However, such sharing, incentivised by lower fares, could attract passenger from buses, which could add to congestion.

If MaaS were to be a major intermediary in meeting travel demand, a significant operational issue would be whether to respond to peak demand for door-to-door travel by mobilising more taxis through surge pricing, as does Uber. Surge pricing to deter demand and increase supply is sensible in the absence of congestion, but may not be optimal under congested conditions. In the absence of surge pricing, demand would exceed supply and would be rationed by waiting in a virtual queue until a taxi becomes available. With surge pricing, there is a greater supply of taxis and so less waiting time, but journey times might be slower on account of increased congestion. Which approach would be optimal would require modelling.

Surge pricing works well for aviation, a closed system where an aircraft can only fly if it has airport slots allocated at trip origin and destination. But roads are an open system and hence prone to congestion at peak times in populated areas. MaaS would be more straightforward to implement in lower density areas, less so in urban centres, unless private cars were entirely replaced by a fleet of shared use self-driving vehicles, as has been suggested.

Who owns the platform?

The question of how MaaS can best cope with peak demand is linked to the second problem – the nature of the platform by means of which demand and supply are matched, prices set and revenues allocated. The central issue is familiar: benefits of competitive supply versus benefits of an integrated network. Experience is varied. In the case of buses, Mrs Thatcher’s government opened the bus services outside London to competition with minimal regulation, hoping to benefit users by on-the-road competition between private sector operators. This largely failed to materialise since such competition resulted in unattractive profit margins. In consequence, the present Government has introduced legislation that would allow other cities to adopt the successful London model, whereby an integrated public transport network is operated by a politically controlled public body, Transport for London.

For MaaS, the question is whether an open source public platform would naturally evolve on account of the superior benefits, as envisaged by the TravelSpirit collaboration. Or whether competition in the market between competing platforms would be the main driver, with perhaps a dominant platform emerging through economies of scale and scope.

A dominant private sector platform might need to be regulated to avoid market failure that allowed economic rents to be extracted at the expense of users. The MaaS provider would have access to all the data arising from use of the system. Fair sharing of this data with transport providers would help meet the needs of users. On the other hand, discriminatory sharing could increase returns to the provider.

Assessment

Traffic congestion is the main problem of the road system. A key question is whether MaaS has the potential to lessen traffic congestion. If it does, then promoting MaaS could be a sensible transport policy, in which case a view would need to be taken of the relative attractions of competing platforms versus a single public platform.

In the longer run, developments in shared use driverless urban vehicles might achieve substantial mitigation of urban traffic congestion. Sharing of taxis would increase vehicle occupancy and hence efficiency of the road system; demand management could limit use of single occupancy vehicles under congested conditions; and the development of vehicle-to-infrastructure communications could permit flow management, analogous to air traffic control. In such circumstances, MaaS would be likely to be an integral part of an urban transport management system. However, development of such a system would be challenging in respect of technology, business models, institutions and public acceptability – hence the feasibility and timing is uncertain. In the meantime, development of MaaS in urban areas would need to cope with traffic congestion.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Independent Transport Commission (ITC) has updated its earlier report on trends in road and rail travel, On the Move, to 2014. This is based on detailed analysis of National Travel Survey data by Peter Headicar and Gordon Stokes.

A key finding is that per capita distance traveled has been decreasing significantly over the past decade and is now 10% lower than in the mid-2000s. As author of a book (and this blog) entitled ‘Peak Car’, I was gratified to read that individual car driving mileage per adult has declined significantly over the period 1995-2014 (see Figure).

The main purpose of the analysis was to identify trends rather than the causes behind them, but the authors believe that attitudinal factors are becoming increasingly significant as drivers of travel. The ITC’s 2015 attitudinal research indicated that cars are increasingly viewed as ‘appliances not aspirations’, especially by young people, while public transport is being seen more favourably.
 Assessment
This report of the ITC provides valuable analysis of the Department for Transport’s National Travel Survey, well worth reading by those who follow the debate about the future of car use. This detailed consideration contrasts with the rather limited account provided by the Department itself.
The present study is consistent with the proposition that travel behaviour changed significantly as we transitioned from the twentieth century to the twenty-first.

My new book published on 1 September is one in a series of short books on policy and economics topics described as ‘essays on big ideas by leading writers’. My contribution is a critique of the inconsistencies of transport policy in recent decades, which I attribute to the shortcomings of conventional transport economic appraisal in identifying the benefits that arise from investment. A column in The Spectator magazine of 26 September described my book as ‘excellent throughout’. My book, Travel Fast or Smart?, is available both in print and as an ebook from Amazon Books.


The National Infrastructure Commission has issued a report on the corridor connecting Cambridge to Oxford via Milton Keynes, in response to a request from the Government for proposals to optimise the potential of this knowledge intensive cluster that competes on a global stage.

The Commission’s national remit does not extend to housing. Nevertheless, its central finding in the present study is that a lack of sufficient and suitable housing presents a fundamental risk to the success of the area. Investment in infrastructure, including enhanced east-west transport links, can help to address the challenges, but it must be properly aligned with a strategy for new homes and communities, not developed in isolation. This means local authorities working in partnership, and with national government, to plan places, homes and transport together.

The Commission recommends that planning for the East West Rail route and the Oxford-Cambridge Expressway should be taken forward urgently, as investments that will deliver substantial national benefits and, if designed properly, can provide the foundations for the corridor’s long-term prosperity: unlocking housing sites, improving land supply, and supporting well-connected and sensitively designed new communities, whilst bringing productive towns and cities closer together.

Assessment

The Commission’s recognition of the importance of planning transport investment to unlock land for housing and to facilitate access to employment is very welcome. However, the orthodox approach to transport economic appraisal focuses on time savings to travellers, which is unhelpful in making decisions about best value for money in this context. A new approach to appraisal is needed.

The Commission’s recommendations for strengthening rails links within the corridor are more persuasive than those concerning road improvements. Increased road capacity in an area of housing development would result in roads filling up with commuter traffic, consistent with the maxim that we can’t build our way out of congestion. Conventional economic appraisal of road investments does not distinguish between benefits to different classes of road users – commuters, long distance business, freight etc. Yet such understanding is important if road investment is not to disappoint.

 

My new book published on 1 September is one in a series of short books on policy and economics topics described as ‘essays on big ideas by leading writers’. My contribution is a critique of the inconsistencies of transport policy in recent decades, which I attribute to the shortcomings of conventional transport economic appraisal in identifying the benefits that arise from investment. A column in The Spectator magazine of 26 September described my book as ‘excellent throughout’. My book, Travel Fast or Smart?, is available both in print and as an ebook from Amazon Books.


Yesterday the Government endorsed the proposal to build a third runway at Heathrow, as recommended by the Airports Commission in its final report of July 2015.

There has been much agonising, mainly on account of the environmental impact – noise and local air pollution – of adding capacity to an already large airport within the bounds of London. MPs representing affected constituencies are generally opposed, with Conservatives reportedly to be given some licence to speak their minds. The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, is also opposed, preferring expansion at Gatwick, well away from his domain.

But yesterday’s decision is less the beginning of the end, more the end of the beginning. The process for delivering planning consent for airport expansion will include an ‘Airports National Policy Statement’ (NPS), following which the scheme promoter would need to apply for a development consent order. Such National Policy Statements for infrastructure developments are a statutory requirement, involving a process of public consultation of a draft document and parliamentary scrutiny, before being finalised. They provide the framework within which Planning Inspectors make their recommendations on specific planning applications, and are intended to prevent national issues being reopened at planning inquiries.

Consultation on the Airports NPS would probably take around a year, given the range and contention of the issues involved, and would allow all parties to have their say. Concerns about local air pollution will be prominent. Unpublished (and disputed) research at Cambridge University is reported as arguing that the marginal increase in NO2 associated with airport expansion would be against the background of reduced NO2 from other traffic, because of Euro 6 engines and electrification of the traffic fleet.

There are also questions about the affordability of a third runway at Heathrow. Willie Walsh, chief executive of British Airways, has questioned the costs of expansion and the impact on landing charges: “I honestly can’t see how you can spend that much money on an airport and not discourage people from flying there.

Gatwick Airport has been arguing vigorously that it should be allowed to add another runway, which would be built faster, be less costly and have less environmental impact than Heathrow. An issue for the Airports NPS is whether Gatwick should have the option of expanding, as well as Heathrow, to achieve more competition. However, the owners of Stansted say they would launch a legal challenge were both Gatwick and Heathrow to be given the go-ahead, on the grounds that they had not been given the opportunity to present their own case for expansion.

When the draft NPS comes to be scrutinised in Parliament, there will be probing questions, not least from the All Party Parliamentary Group on Heathrow, which has identified sixteen serious risks that could stop or delay expansion. There is bound to be a vote to ratify the NPS, which likely to be a free vote to allow dissenting Conservative MPs to register the unhappiness of their constituents – so no assured outcome.

Evidently, there is a long way to go before construction could start at Heathrow. The timeline includes publication of the draft Airports NPS, public consultation, the Government’s response, parliamentary scrutiny and endorsement (all of which could take a year), a public examination by a Planning Inspector of the detailed plans (which could take another year), the Inspectors report, and the Secretary of State’s decision. In the meantime the finances would need to be agreed, including the necessary increase in airport landing charges to recover the costs, and the financing of surface transport provision.

It is worth recalling that planning consent for the Hinkley C nuclear power station was originally given in 1990, following a year-long public inquiry, but agreement to begin construction was reached only in September 2016. The delay was mainly due to difficulties about financing a plant that generates high cost electricity – a salutary warning of the length of time it can take for large contentious infrastructure proposals even to get to the point of starting construction.

A version of this article was published in The Conversation

 

 

 

 

I have a new book published on 1 September, one in a series of short books on policy and economics topics described as ‘essays on big ideas by leading writers’. My contribution is a critique of the inconsistencies of transport policy in recent decades, which I attribute to the shortcomings of conventional transport economic appraisal in identifying the benefits that arise from investment. A column in The Spectator magazine of 26 September described my book as ‘excellent throughout’.


The Office of Rail and Road has responsibility for monitoring Highways England’s delivery of the Government’s Road Investment Strategy. This involves investment in England’s Strategic Road Network of £15bn over five years, with more to follow. The ORR has been consulting on how to carry out this task. My response to this consultation is as follows.

The economic rationale for investment in the road network is to generate benefits for users, including in particular the saving of travel time. It would therefore be appropriate for the benefits to users of Highways England’s investment programme to be evaluated as part of ORR’s monitoring process.

In general, traffic congestion on the Strategic Road Network (SRN) arises in or near populated areas, where local traffic adds to long distance traffic; remote from such areas, the traffic generally flows freely. From the perspective of orthodox transport economics, a congested road is an opportunity to invest by adding capacity. But how do road users experience the benefit?

Highways England has evaluated the outcome of ‘major schemes’ five years after opening. It finds that average time savings are small, 3 minutes at peak periods.[1] The economic case for investment depends on multiplying such small time savings by a large number of vehicles (and by monetary values of time saved). Nevertheless, it is relevant to ask how road users experience such small time savings.

While a few minutes time saving would not be material for long distance users, it could be significant to local users on short trips, in particular by allowing more opportunities and choices when changing job or moving house. Indeed, it seems likely that the main benefit of investment in additional capacity on the SRN would accrue to car commuters.[2]

It would therefore be important to understand the nature and distribution of the benefits of the investment schemes of Highways England, as experienced by different classes and locations of road users.

Transport Focus commissioned an Independent Analytical Review for a Road User Satisfaction Survey in 2015. This recommended the development of a continuous online survey of satisfaction using a representative panel of road users. Repeated surveys of a panel would allow trends in satisfaction to be monitored over time. Transport Focus is currently piloting this approach.[3]

Such a survey technique could in principle be used to track the subjective user experience of improvements to the network as a whole. Moreover, relating user experience to specific investments would allow the benefits of these to be understood, as experienced by different classes of road user.

Another approach, also using a volunteer representative panel, would involve monitoring individual travel patterns, based on mobile phone GPS location. This would provide an objective measure of changed travel patterns as the result of investment, and would allow identification of which users benefit, both as regards location, journey purpose and socio-economic characteristics.

Average travel time has been measured for the past 40 years by means of the National Travel Survey. It is noteworthy that average travel time has remained unchanged at about an hour a day, despite many £billions of investment in the road network. This indicates that there are no time savings to users in the long run. There is a therefore a question about the nature of long run benefits, which are mainly to be seen as changes in land use and land value, as land is made more accessible for development that can contribute to economic growth. Travel time savings are therefore short run and their duration needs to be monitored.

Summary

Given the very large expenditures planned for the SRN, it is important to understand the nature and distribution of the benefits of investment. There is an opportunity for the ORR to improve value for money by taking an analytical approach – tracking the experience of road users as this is improved by investment in the road network. Both subjective and objective change should be monitored, to understand the nature and distribution of the benefits of investment.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[1] http://assets.highways.gov.uk/our-road-network/pope/major-schemes/POPE___meta_2011___main_report___final.pdf

[2] http://peakcar.org/valuing-travel-time-savings-problems-with-the-paradigm/

[3]http://www.transportfocus.org.uk/research-publications/research/strategic-roads-user-survey/#_ftn1

 

 

 

I have a new book published on 1 September, one in a series of short books on policy and economics topics described as ‘essays on big ideas by leading writers’. My contribution is a critique of the inconsistencies of transport policy in recent decades, which I attribute to the shortcomings of conventional transport economic appraisal in identifying the benefits that arise from investment.


The major proposal to stimulate the economies of the cities comprising the Northern Powerhouse is to improve east-west transport connectivity, both rail and road. However, the evidence for the benefits of investment in inter-urban transport is less persuasive than for investment in intra-urban services.

Glasgow and Edinburgh are two cities with good transport links: as little as 48 minutes by rail, with over 200 trains a day in each direction. The economy of Glasgow has changed markedly over the years: whilst manufacturing has declined, there has been significant  growth of service industries, in particular financial and business services. Glasgow is now one of Europe’s sixteen largest financial centres, based on a new International Financial Services District, where operating costs are claimed to be 40% lower than in London.

Of the 20 named businesses located in this District, only one is a company headquarters. The others are back offices or subsidiaries, just two of which report to HQs in Edinburgh, the long established centre of financial services in Scotland. The large majority of these Glasgow operations report to London, other English cities or to overseas head offices, for which north-south and international connectivities are more important than east-west.

Assessment

The good transport connectivity between Glasgow and Edinburgh does not appear to have been an important factor in the development of the financial services sector in Glasgow.

 

 

I have a new book published on 1 September, one in a series of short books on policy and economics topics described as ‘essays on big ideas by leading writers’. My contribution is a critique of the inconsistencies of transport policy in recent decades, which I attribute to the shortcomings of conventional transport economic appraisal in identifying the benefits that arise from investment. Readers of this web-magazine will recognise many of the arguments, now brought together in a single volume at a modest price.

It is difficult to build housing in many parts of Britain at a rate to meet the growth of demand. This leads to inflated prices, whether to buy or rent, with younger people finding it increasingly tough to acquire ownership of their own homes.

However, the rate of addition to the housing stock from new build is quite small, contributing only about 10% of the annual supply for rent or purchase, with the other 90% from turnover of the existing stock. So it is worth considering whether the use made of the existing stock could be more efficient. Danny Dorling, professor of geography at Oxford, has pointed out that Census data shows a steady increase in the number of rooms per person, currently almost 2.5 (‘rooms’ comprises bedrooms, living rooms and kitchens). This suggests that pressures in the housing market arise from maldistribution of available accommodation, whether arising from inequalities of income, from people holding on to houses larger than they need as an investment, or from geographical location.

One possible approach to achieving a more efficient and equitable use of the existing stock would be through investment in the transport system that would increase accessibility, particularly of housing to the location of employment. The supposition is that turnover of existing stock (‘churn’) would tend to increase the efficiency of use when those purchasing are constrained by income and those selling are downsizing, for instance following change of family circumstances such as death, divorce, or ‘empty nest’. Increased access as the result of transport investment would tend to increase opportunities for purchase by those seeking properties they can afford, and to increase the incentive to sell by those downsizing.

An example of such enhanced access impacting the housing market is London’s Overground railway, old track rejuvenated by investment in stations and rolling stock, and resulting in both a 5-fold increase in passenger numbers and some of the biggest house price increases (per cent) in London, as neighbourhoods with lower cost accommodation have become more accessible. Plans for future rail investment in London will also make more housing accessible to where people work, including Crossrail2, the extension of the Bakerloo Line, and plans for Transport for London to operate suburban rail routes as high frequency metro services.

Beyond London, the Cambridge guided busway (pictured above) includes three park-and-ride sites with a total of 2700 parking spaces for those wishing to avoid driving into the city. The busway serves Northstowe, a former airfield where there are proposals for a new town up to 10,000 new homes.

Rail and guided busways (known generally as Bus Rapid Transit) offer fast and reliable travel for work journeys, compared with the car on congested roads. Investments in these transport modes allow towns and cities to grow by making land accessible for housing development, without a corresponding increase in car use that would add to congestion – known in the US as Transit-Oriented Development. In contrast, adding capacity to inter-urban roads adjacent to populated areas would allow more car commuting and hence housing development, but would add to traffic congestion at urban destinations.

Assessment

Given the stresses in the housing market and the difficulties in Britain of increasing the rate of construction of new dwellings, there are attractions in a focus on improved public transport as a means of increasing access to more affordable housing.